2026-08-07
EdgePicks - daily single picks
Today's football singles: model pricing against bookmaker odds, from 1X2 to handicaps and goal totals.
EdgePicks turns model probabilities and bookmaker odds into a clear shortlist of daily football singles: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals, correct scores and half-time markets. The page is built to support decisions, not to promise guaranteed outcomes. Corners and cards are not priced.
How are picks selected?
The model builds a goal distribution for each match from the teams' recent scoring form, separately for the first and second half. Every market is derived from that same distribution: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals (including team totals), both teams to score, correct scores and half-time/full-time. Corners and cards are not priced at all.
The model's own price is compared against the bookmaker's odds (Unibet, 1xBet, Pinnacle). A pick qualifies if the gap is large enough, and a separate guard rejects rows where the gap is implausibly large — such a gap is more often the model's error than the market's. At most one bet per match.
A human picks the final list. Nothing is published automatically: the page shows the selections that were deliberately chosen to be played. Stakes are fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon.
What this is not. Some markets are calibrated against realised results, most are not — on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. See the tracking page's ROI and CLV for how picks have actually performed. The daily count varies with how many matches are played and how many rows pass the guard.
Daily result
27/27Browse previous days
6Published runs from the last 15 days are available here. The newest successful batch is shown for each date.
Bookmaker mix
- 1xBet18
- Pinnacle7
- Unibet2
Top singles
20/27| # | Match | Time | Bookmaker | Pick | Odds | Prob | Stake ℹ | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ponte Preta U20 vs Jabaquara U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 1 | 1.52 | 85.4% | 1.53% | LOSS | -15.3 |
| 2 | UCD vs WexfordIreland - First Division | 18:45 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 0.5 | 2.95 | 44.0% | 1.17% | LOSS | -11.7 |
| 3 | Operario-PR vs São BernardoBrazil - Serie B | 22:30 | Pinnacle | 1X2 H1 · 2 | 4.89 | 26.5% | 0.59% | WIN | +22.9 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo vs Club Deportivo Los ChankasPeru - Primera División | 18:00 | Unibet | Total Goals FT · Over 3 | 2.23 | 58.2% | 1.53% | LOSS | -15.3 |
| 5 | União São João U20 vs Bandeirante U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 1.25 | 1.84 | 70.4% | 1.53% | HALF_WIN | +6.4 |
| 6 | Athlone Town vs Longford TownIreland - First Division | 18:45 | Pinnacle | Total Goals H1 · Under 0.5 | 3.10 | 41.6% | 1.06% | LOSS | -10.6 |
| 7 | Cobh Ramblers vs Treaty UnitedIreland - First Division | 18:45 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 2 | 2.57 | 50.2% | 1.41% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 8 | Botafogo SP U20 vs Santo André U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Over 2 | 4.90 | 26.3% | 0.57% | WIN | +22.2 |
| 9 | Enköping vs KarlbergSweden - Ettan - Norra | 17:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 1.75 | 1.74 | 74.0% | 1.53% | WIN | +11.4 |
| 10 | 07 Vestur vs EB / StreymurFaroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin | 17:30 | Pinnacle | Home Total Goals FT · Under 1.5 | 1.62 | 79.2% | 1.53% | LOSS | -15.3 |
| 11 | Afturelding vs GrindavikIceland - 1. Deild | 19:15 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Under 4.25 | 1.48 | 86.6% | 1.53% | LOSS | -15.3 |
| 12 | Forge vs Vancouver FCCanada - Canadian Premier League | 23:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals FT · Under 2 | 1.55 | 82.7% | 1.53% | WIN | +8.4 |
| 13 | Mirassol U20 vs Itapirense U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 5.5 | 9.00 | 14.1% | 0.26% | LOSS | -2.6 |
| 14 | ABB vs GuabiráBolivia - Primera División | 21:15 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap FT · 2 +0 | 3.34 | 38.0% | 0.88% | WIN | +20.7 |
| 15 | Aguai U20 vs São Paulo U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.41 | 52.3% | 1.42% | LOSS | -14.2 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo vs Real OruroBolivia - Primera División | 23:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 6.40 | 19.7% | 0.37% | LOSS | -3.7 |
| 17 | EC São Bernardo U20 vs Oeste U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals FT · Under 1 | 2.20 | 55.9% | 1.47% | LOSS | -14.7 |
| 18 | Santos U20 vs São Bento U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 FT · 2 | 16.00 | 7.6% | 0.11% | LOSS | -1.1 |
| 19 | Traiskirchen vs Fach-DonaufeldAustria - Regionalliga - Ost | 17:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 1 | 4.80 | 25.0% | 0.41% | WIN | +15.5 |
| 20 | Orlando Pride W vs Racing Louisville WUSA - NWSL Women | 23:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 H1 · 2 | 4.58 | 25.9% | 0.40% | WIN | +14.2 |
ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.
All filtered picks
27| # | Match | Time | Bookmaker | Pick | Odds | Prob | Stake ℹ | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ponte Preta U20 vs Jabaquara U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 1 | 1.52 | 85.4% | 1.53% | LOSS | -15.3 |
| 2 | UCD vs WexfordIreland - First Division | 18:45 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 0.5 | 2.95 | 44.0% | 1.17% | LOSS | -11.7 |
| 3 | Operario-PR vs São BernardoBrazil - Serie B | 22:30 | Pinnacle | 1X2 H1 · 2 | 4.89 | 26.5% | 0.59% | WIN | +22.9 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo vs Club Deportivo Los ChankasPeru - Primera División | 18:00 | Unibet | Total Goals FT · Over 3 | 2.23 | 58.2% | 1.53% | LOSS | -15.3 |
| 5 | União São João U20 vs Bandeirante U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 1.25 | 1.84 | 70.4% | 1.53% | HALF_WIN | +6.4 |
| 6 | Athlone Town vs Longford TownIreland - First Division | 18:45 | Pinnacle | Total Goals H1 · Under 0.5 | 3.10 | 41.6% | 1.06% | LOSS | -10.6 |
| 7 | Cobh Ramblers vs Treaty UnitedIreland - First Division | 18:45 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 2 | 2.57 | 50.2% | 1.41% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 8 | Botafogo SP U20 vs Santo André U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Over 2 | 4.90 | 26.3% | 0.57% | WIN | +22.2 |
| 9 | Enköping vs KarlbergSweden - Ettan - Norra | 17:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 1.75 | 1.74 | 74.0% | 1.53% | WIN | +11.4 |
| 10 | 07 Vestur vs EB / StreymurFaroe-Islands - Meistaradeildin | 17:30 | Pinnacle | Home Total Goals FT · Under 1.5 | 1.62 | 79.2% | 1.53% | LOSS | -15.3 |
| 11 | Afturelding vs GrindavikIceland - 1. Deild | 19:15 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Under 4.25 | 1.48 | 86.6% | 1.53% | LOSS | -15.3 |
| 12 | Forge vs Vancouver FCCanada - Canadian Premier League | 23:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals FT · Under 2 | 1.55 | 82.7% | 1.53% | WIN | +8.4 |
| 13 | Mirassol U20 vs Itapirense U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 5.5 | 9.00 | 14.1% | 0.26% | LOSS | -2.6 |
| 14 | ABB vs GuabiráBolivia - Primera División | 21:15 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap FT · 2 +0 | 3.34 | 38.0% | 0.88% | WIN | +20.7 |
| 15 | Aguai U20 vs São Paulo U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.41 | 52.3% | 1.42% | LOSS | -14.2 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo vs Real OruroBolivia - Primera División | 23:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 6.40 | 19.7% | 0.37% | LOSS | -3.7 |
| 17 | EC São Bernardo U20 vs Oeste U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals FT · Under 1 | 2.20 | 55.9% | 1.47% | LOSS | -14.7 |
| 18 | Santos U20 vs São Bento U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 FT · 2 | 16.00 | 7.6% | 0.11% | LOSS | -1.1 |
| 19 | Traiskirchen vs Fach-DonaufeldAustria - Regionalliga - Ost | 17:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 1 | 4.80 | 25.0% | 0.41% | WIN | +15.5 |
| 20 | Orlando Pride W vs Racing Louisville WUSA - NWSL Women | 23:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 H1 · 2 | 4.58 | 25.9% | 0.40% | WIN | +14.2 |
| 21 | Cork City vs KerryIreland - First Division | 18:45 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 1 | 1.50 | 75.6% | 1.53% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 22 | Ceara vs Ponte PretaBrazil - Serie B | 23:30 | Unibet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.08 | 54.5% | 0.95% | LOSS | -9.5 |
| 23 | Bray Wanderers vs Finn HarpsIreland - First Division | 18:45 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap FT · 1 -2.75 | 3.43 | 32.6% | 0.38% | WIN | +9.2 |
| 24 | Osasco Audax U20 vs Referencia U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Away Total Goals FT · Under 0.5 | 2.51 | 43.9% | 0.51% | WIN | +7.7 |
| 25 | Ituano U20 vs RB Bragantino U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 2.5 | 2.48 | 44.2% | 0.50% | LOSS | -5.0 |
| 26 | Tanabi SP U20 vs Palmeiras U20Brazil - Paulista - U20 | 22:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 FT · 1 | 15.00 | 7.2% | 0.04% | LOSS | -0.4 |
| 27 | Union Espanola vs AntofagastaChile - Primera B | 22:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 H1 · 1 | 3.10 | 34.2% | 0.22% | LOSS | -2.2 |
ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.
Support us
EdgePicks publishes model-driven value picks every day. Data feeds, hosting and development cost money — if you find the picks useful, you can buy us a coffee and help keep the site running. Thank you! ☕
+18 · pelaa vastuullisesti
Responsible Betting
Betting involves financial risk. Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes, and historical performance does not guarantee future returns. Only stake money you can afford to lose.