2026-08-05
EdgePicks - daily single picks
Today's football singles: model pricing against bookmaker odds, from 1X2 to handicaps and goal totals.
EdgePicks turns model probabilities and bookmaker odds into a clear shortlist of daily football singles: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals, correct scores and half-time markets. The page is built to support decisions, not to promise guaranteed outcomes. Corners and cards are not priced.
How are picks selected?
The model builds a goal distribution for each match from the teams' recent scoring form, separately for the first and second half. Every market is derived from that same distribution: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals (including team totals), both teams to score, correct scores and half-time/full-time. Corners and cards are not priced at all.
The model's own price is compared against the bookmaker's odds (Unibet, 1xBet, Pinnacle). A pick qualifies if the gap is large enough, and a separate guard rejects rows where the gap is implausibly large — such a gap is more often the model's error than the market's. At most one bet per match.
A human picks the final list. Nothing is published automatically: the page shows the selections that were deliberately chosen to be played. Stakes are fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon.
What this is not. Some markets are calibrated against realised results, most are not — on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. See the tracking page's ROI and CLV for how picks have actually performed. The daily count varies with how many matches are played and how many rows pass the guard.
Daily result
23/25Browse previous days
6Published runs from the last 15 days are available here. The newest successful batch is shown for each date.
Bookmaker mix
- 1xBet17
- Pinnacle7
- Unibet1
Top singles
20/25| # | Match | Time | Bookmaker | Pick | Odds | Prob | Stake ℹ | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ranheim II vs NTNUINorway - 3. Division - Girone 2 | 17:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H2 · Under 1 | 1.57 | 82.8% | 0.81% | WIN | +4.6 |
| 2 | Keflavik vs KA AkureyriIceland - Úrvalsdeild | 18:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 2 | 1.36 | 95.6% | 0.81% | WIN | +2.9 |
| 3 | VJS vs PKKUFinland - Ykkönen | 16:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score FT · 1-0 | 11.00 | 11.8% | 0.12% | LOSS | -1.2 |
| 4 | Almagro vs Gimnasia Y TiroArgentina - Primera Nacional | 18:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H1 · Over 1 | 7.70 | 16.9% | 0.18% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 5 | Zenit vs BaltikaRussia - Cup | 17:45 | 1xBet | HT/FT · X/2 | 18.50 | 7.0% | 0.07% | LOSS | -0.7 |
| 6 | FH hafnarfjordur vs KR ReykjavikIceland - Úrvalsdeild | 19:15 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 4.25 | 1.79 | 72.5% | 0.81% | WIN | +6.4 |
| 7 | Internacional de Bogota vs JaguaresColombia - Primera A | 23:15 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Over 1.5 | 2.95 | 44.0% | 0.62% | LOSS | -6.2 |
| 8 | Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Jiangxi LianshengChina - League Two | 11:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 3.5 | 4.00 | 32.4% | 0.40% | LOSS | -4.0 |
| 9 | UNSAAC W vs Atl. Andahuaylas Wliiga 1229 | 20:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Under 1.25 | 1.82 | 71.2% | 0.81% | - | - |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí vs The StrongestBolivia - Primera División | 22:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 1.5 | 1.72 | 75.3% | 0.81% | LOSS | -8.1 |
| 11 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs San Antonio Bulo BuloBolivia - Primera División | 19:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 2.25 | 3.00 | 43.2% | 0.60% | WIN | +12.0 |
| 12 | Naples vs AltaUSA - USL League One | 23:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Under 3.25 | 1.54 | 84.0% | 0.81% | HALF_WIN | +2.2 |
| 13 | Brora Rangers vs Wick AcademyScotland - Football League - Highland League | 19:00 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap FT · 2 +2.25 | 2.02 | 64.0% | 0.81% | LOSS | -8.1 |
| 14 | Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P.Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina | 22:00 | Unibet | Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 2.85 | 45.3% | 0.64% | LOSS | -6.4 |
| 15 | OLS vs TPVFinland - Ykkönen | 15:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals H1 · Under 2 | 1.39 | 92.8% | 0.81% | LOSS | -8.1 |
| 16 | Olaria vs Nova IguaçuBrazil - Copa Rio | 17:45 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 1.61 | 80.0% | 0.81% | WIN | +5.0 |
| 17 | Ferro 2 vs Deportivo Riestra Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score H1 · 1-1 | 9.00 | 14.2% | 0.14% | LOSS | -1.4 |
| 18 | Guabirá vs Real TomayapoBolivia - Primera División | 00:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 2.5 | 2.88 | 44.2% | 0.59% | LOSS | -5.9 |
| 19 | Quilmes vs Gimnasia JujuyArgentina - Primera Nacional | 23:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 2.55 | 49.7% | 0.70% | LOSS | -7.0 |
| 20 | Santiago Wanderers vs Union La CaleraChile - Copa Chile | 22:00 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap H2 · 2 -1 | 4.45 | 27.9% | 0.28% | PUSH | +0.0 |
ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.
All filtered picks
25| # | Match | Time | Bookmaker | Pick | Odds | Prob | Stake ℹ | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ranheim II vs NTNUINorway - 3. Division - Girone 2 | 17:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H2 · Under 1 | 1.57 | 82.8% | 0.81% | WIN | +4.6 |
| 2 | Keflavik vs KA AkureyriIceland - Úrvalsdeild | 18:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 2 | 1.36 | 95.6% | 0.81% | WIN | +2.9 |
| 3 | VJS vs PKKUFinland - Ykkönen | 16:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score FT · 1-0 | 11.00 | 11.8% | 0.12% | LOSS | -1.2 |
| 4 | Almagro vs Gimnasia Y TiroArgentina - Primera Nacional | 18:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H1 · Over 1 | 7.70 | 16.9% | 0.18% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 5 | Zenit vs BaltikaRussia - Cup | 17:45 | 1xBet | HT/FT · X/2 | 18.50 | 7.0% | 0.07% | LOSS | -0.7 |
| 6 | FH hafnarfjordur vs KR ReykjavikIceland - Úrvalsdeild | 19:15 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 4.25 | 1.79 | 72.5% | 0.81% | WIN | +6.4 |
| 7 | Internacional de Bogota vs JaguaresColombia - Primera A | 23:15 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Over 1.5 | 2.95 | 44.0% | 0.62% | LOSS | -6.2 |
| 8 | Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Jiangxi LianshengChina - League Two | 11:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 3.5 | 4.00 | 32.4% | 0.40% | LOSS | -4.0 |
| 9 | UNSAAC W vs Atl. Andahuaylas Wliiga 1229 | 20:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Under 1.25 | 1.82 | 71.2% | 0.81% | - | - |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí vs The StrongestBolivia - Primera División | 22:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 1.5 | 1.72 | 75.3% | 0.81% | LOSS | -8.1 |
| 11 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs San Antonio Bulo BuloBolivia - Primera División | 19:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 2.25 | 3.00 | 43.2% | 0.60% | WIN | +12.0 |
| 12 | Naples vs AltaUSA - USL League One | 23:30 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Under 3.25 | 1.54 | 84.0% | 0.81% | HALF_WIN | +2.2 |
| 13 | Brora Rangers vs Wick AcademyScotland - Football League - Highland League | 19:00 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap FT · 2 +2.25 | 2.02 | 64.0% | 0.81% | LOSS | -8.1 |
| 14 | Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P.Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina | 22:00 | Unibet | Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 2.85 | 45.3% | 0.64% | LOSS | -6.4 |
| 15 | OLS vs TPVFinland - Ykkönen | 15:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals H1 · Under 2 | 1.39 | 92.8% | 0.81% | LOSS | -8.1 |
| 16 | Olaria vs Nova IguaçuBrazil - Copa Rio | 17:45 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 1.61 | 80.0% | 0.81% | WIN | +5.0 |
| 17 | Ferro 2 vs Deportivo Riestra Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score H1 · 1-1 | 9.00 | 14.2% | 0.14% | LOSS | -1.4 |
| 18 | Guabirá vs Real TomayapoBolivia - Primera División | 00:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 2.5 | 2.88 | 44.2% | 0.59% | LOSS | -5.9 |
| 19 | Quilmes vs Gimnasia JujuyArgentina - Primera Nacional | 23:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 2.55 | 49.7% | 0.70% | LOSS | -7.0 |
| 20 | Santiago Wanderers vs Union La CaleraChile - Copa Chile | 22:00 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap H2 · 2 -1 | 4.45 | 27.9% | 0.28% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 21 | Gremio vs MirassolBrazil - Copa Do Brasil | 22:30 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap FT · 1 -1 | 3.17 | 39.1% | 0.45% | PUSH | +0.0 |
| 22 | Spartak Moscow vs FC OrenburgRussia - Cup | 15:30 | 1xBet | 1X2 H2 · 2 | 6.57 | 18.7% | 0.17% | LOSS | -1.7 |
| 23 | Rizhao Yuqi vs BITChina - League Two | 11:30 | 1xBet | HT/FT · 2/2 | 11.50 | 10.3% | 0.07% | LOSS | -0.7 |
| 24 | FC Krasnodar vs AkhmatRussia - Cup | 17:45 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap FT · 1 -2 | 4.48 | 25.3% | 0.15% | - | - |
| 25 | Unión Santa Fe Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 3.28 | 34.1% | 0.21% | LOSS | -2.1 |
ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.
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Betting involves financial risk. Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes, and historical performance does not guarantee future returns. Only stake money you can afford to lose.