2026-08-04
EdgePicks - daily single picks
Today's football singles: model pricing against bookmaker odds, from 1X2 to handicaps and goal totals.
EdgePicks turns model probabilities and bookmaker odds into a clear shortlist of daily football singles: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals, correct scores and half-time markets. The page is built to support decisions, not to promise guaranteed outcomes. Corners and cards are not priced.
How are picks selected?
The model builds a goal distribution for each match from the teams' recent scoring form, separately for the first and second half. Every market is derived from that same distribution: 1X2, handicaps, goal totals (including team totals), both teams to score, correct scores and half-time/full-time. Corners and cards are not priced at all.
The model's own price is compared against the bookmaker's odds (Unibet, 1xBet, Pinnacle). A pick qualifies if the gap is large enough, and a separate guard rejects rows where the gap is implausibly large — such a gap is more often the model's error than the market's. At most one bet per match.
A human picks the final list. Nothing is published automatically: the page shows the selections that were deliberately chosen to be played. Stakes are fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon.
What this is not. Some markets are calibrated against realised results, most are not — on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. See the tracking page's ROI and CLV for how picks have actually performed. The daily count varies with how many matches are played and how many rows pass the guard.
Daily result
25/26Browse previous days
6Published runs from the last 15 days are available here. The newest successful batch is shown for each date.
Bookmaker mix
- 1xBet17
- Pinnacle7
- Unibet2
Top singles
20/26| # | Match | Time | Bookmaker | Pick | Odds | Prob | Stake ℹ | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad de Concepcion vs Curico UnidoChile - Copa Chile | 23:30 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap FT · 2 -0.75 | 4.25 | 30.6% | 0.73% | WIN | +23.8 |
| 2 | Valur Reykjavik vs StjarnanIceland - Úrvalsdeild | 19:15 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Under 4.75 | 1.37 | 94.9% | 1.59% | - | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia SovetovRussia - Cup | 15:30 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap FT · 1 -2.5 | 8.10 | 16.0% | 0.34% | LOSS | -3.4 |
| 4 | Nublense vs Rangers de TalcaChile - Copa Chile | 23:30 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 1.74 | 74.6% | 1.59% | WIN | +11.8 |
| 5 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs River Plate Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 4.5 | 8.50 | 15.3% | 0.31% | LOSS | -3.1 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors Res. vs Independiente Riva. Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 22:00 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap FT · 2 +0.75 | 3.23 | 40.1% | 1.05% | HALF_LOSS | -5.3 |
| 7 | Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San LorenzoArgentina - Liga Profesional Argentina | 00:15 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 1.60 | 80.9% | 1.59% | WIN | +9.5 |
| 8 | Ilves II vs MusaFinland - Kakkonen - Lohko B | 16:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 4 | 2.33 | 55.5% | 1.59% | LOSS | -15.9 |
| 9 | Godoy Cruz Res. vs Racing Club Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 51.7% | 1.55% | WIN | +23.3 |
| 10 | Estrella Del Sur vs LujanArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H2 · Over 1.5 | 8.10 | 15.9% | 0.33% | LOSS | -3.3 |
| 11 | UNA Strassen vs Victoria RosportLuxembourg - National Division | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 3.75 | 1.36 | 95.0% | 1.59% | HALF_LOSS | -7.9 |
| 12 | El Porvenir vs FénixArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score H2 · 3-0 | 70.00 | 1.8% | 0.03% | LOSS | -0.3 |
| 13 | Banfield Res. vs Tigre Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 1.75 | 2.30 | 55.8% | 1.59% | HALF_LOSS | -7.9 |
| 14 | Bucaramanga vs CucutaColombia - Primera A | 01:00 | Unibet | Total Goals FT · Over 4 | 7.00 | 18.3% | 0.37% | LOSS | -3.7 |
| 15 | Millonarios W vs Santa Fe WColombia - Liga Femenina | 22:20 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 3.5 | 4.70 | 27.2% | 0.60% | LOSS | -6.0 |
| 16 | Deportivo Paraguayo vs Central BallesterArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | 1xBet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.41 | 52.9% | 1.55% | LOSS | -15.5 |
| 17 | Berazategui vs Central CordobaArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 2.81 | 45.3% | 1.20% | LOSS | -12.0 |
| 18 | Llaneros vs Fortaleza FCColombia - Primera A | 21:10 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 2.35 | 53.1% | 1.46% | WIN | +19.7 |
| 19 | Atletico Atlas vs SacachispasArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | 1xBet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.36 | 52.9% | 1.45% | LOSS | -14.5 |
| 20 | ABB vs Real OruroBolivia - Primera División | 19:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 4.50 | 27.5% | 0.54% | LOSS | -5.4 |
ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.
All filtered picks
26| # | Match | Time | Bookmaker | Pick | Odds | Prob | Stake ℹ | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad de Concepcion vs Curico UnidoChile - Copa Chile | 23:30 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap FT · 2 -0.75 | 4.25 | 30.6% | 0.73% | WIN | +23.8 |
| 2 | Valur Reykjavik vs StjarnanIceland - Úrvalsdeild | 19:15 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Under 4.75 | 1.37 | 94.9% | 1.59% | - | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia SovetovRussia - Cup | 15:30 | 1xBet | Asian Handicap FT · 1 -2.5 | 8.10 | 16.0% | 0.34% | LOSS | -3.4 |
| 4 | Nublense vs Rangers de TalcaChile - Copa Chile | 23:30 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 1.74 | 74.6% | 1.59% | WIN | +11.8 |
| 5 | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs River Plate Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 4.5 | 8.50 | 15.3% | 0.31% | LOSS | -3.1 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors Res. vs Independiente Riva. Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 22:00 | Pinnacle | Asian Handicap FT · 2 +0.75 | 3.23 | 40.1% | 1.05% | HALF_LOSS | -5.3 |
| 7 | Central Cordoba de Santiago vs San LorenzoArgentina - Liga Profesional Argentina | 00:15 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H2 · Under 0.5 | 1.60 | 80.9% | 1.59% | WIN | +9.5 |
| 8 | Ilves II vs MusaFinland - Kakkonen - Lohko B | 16:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 4 | 2.33 | 55.5% | 1.59% | LOSS | -15.9 |
| 9 | Godoy Cruz Res. vs Racing Club Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | 1xBet | Total Goals H1 · Over 1.5 | 2.50 | 51.7% | 1.55% | WIN | +23.3 |
| 10 | Estrella Del Sur vs LujanArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | 1xBet | Home Total Goals H2 · Over 1.5 | 8.10 | 15.9% | 0.33% | LOSS | -3.3 |
| 11 | UNA Strassen vs Victoria RosportLuxembourg - National Division | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 3.75 | 1.36 | 95.0% | 1.59% | HALF_LOSS | -7.9 |
| 12 | El Porvenir vs FénixArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | 1xBet | Correct Score H2 · 3-0 | 70.00 | 1.8% | 0.03% | LOSS | -0.3 |
| 13 | Banfield Res. vs Tigre Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 1.75 | 2.30 | 55.8% | 1.59% | HALF_LOSS | -7.9 |
| 14 | Bucaramanga vs CucutaColombia - Primera A | 01:00 | Unibet | Total Goals FT · Over 4 | 7.00 | 18.3% | 0.37% | LOSS | -3.7 |
| 15 | Millonarios W vs Santa Fe WColombia - Liga Femenina | 22:20 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 3.5 | 4.70 | 27.2% | 0.60% | LOSS | -6.0 |
| 16 | Deportivo Paraguayo vs Central BallesterArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | 1xBet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.41 | 52.9% | 1.55% | LOSS | -15.5 |
| 17 | Berazategui vs Central CordobaArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 2.81 | 45.3% | 1.20% | LOSS | -12.0 |
| 18 | Llaneros vs Fortaleza FCColombia - Primera A | 21:10 | 1xBet | Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 2.35 | 53.1% | 1.46% | WIN | +19.7 |
| 19 | Atletico Atlas vs SacachispasArgentina - Primera C | 18:00 | 1xBet | BTTS FT · Yes | 2.36 | 52.9% | 1.45% | LOSS | -14.5 |
| 20 | ABB vs Real OruroBolivia - Primera División | 19:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Over 2.5 | 4.50 | 27.5% | 0.54% | LOSS | -5.4 |
| 21 | Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Sarmiento Res.Argentina - Reserve League | 18:00 | Pinnacle | Away Total Goals FT · Under 0.5 | 2.51 | 47.8% | 1.05% | WIN | +15.9 |
| 22 | Strasbourg vs SV Elversbergliiga 667 | 16:00 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 0.5 | 3.20 | 36.7% | 0.63% | LOSS | -6.3 |
| 23 | Deportes Temuco vs Deportes CopiapoChile - Primera B | 00:00 | Pinnacle | Total Goals FT · Under 2 | 2.55 | 46.0% | 0.89% | LOSS | -8.9 |
| 24 | Perez Zeledon vs CS CartaginesCosta-Rica - Primera División | 02:00 | 1xBet | 1X2 H1 · 1 | 4.32 | 27.1% | 0.41% | WIN | +13.5 |
| 25 | Deportes Tolima vs Independiente MedellinColombia - Primera A | 23:15 | Unibet | HT/FT · X/X | 4.70 | 23.9% | 0.27% | LOSS | -2.7 |
| 26 | Ipswich vs Le Havreliiga 667 | 18:45 | 1xBet | Away Total Goals FT · Under 1 | 1.85 | 58.2% | 0.72% | WIN | +6.1 |
ℹ Share of bankroll per bet: fractional Kelly from the model probability, capped per bet and per coupon. Kelly scales directly with the model probability, so on an uncalibrated line the stake is uncalibrated too. A dash means no bankroll was stored with the row.
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Betting involves financial risk. Model estimates are not guaranteed outcomes, and historical performance does not guarantee future returns. Only stake money you can afford to lose.